Wednesday, April 25, 2007

How to make the right pick


The NFL draft each year seems to provide some of the best comedy in all of sports. Teams spend countless hours studying college kids and where they might be "picked", we could really compare this to our neighborhood pickup wiffleball games when we just chose teams - it seams the only difference is actual money is involved. There is comedy from the analyst's who get upset when teams don't pick who they think they should pick. in 1989 just before his excessive hair dying began Mel Kiper responded to the NY Jets picking Freeman McNeil from UCLA "It's obvious to me that the Jets just don't understand what the draft is all about." I can envision him one year being way off and just getting up from that desk and looking around at all those people like Jack Nicholson in a few good men "this is funny, that's what this is. You freakin' people! All you did was weakin' a league today. That's all you did. You put people's lives in danger. Sweet dreams, son."

The NFL fans are hilarious - they pack out Madison square garden in Jerseys, tailgate before hand, get loaded all to see there team do the same thing they saw in gym class, 'we pick carl!'...The loathing that goes on is just, but hilarious. I heard a 49ers fan call in a show last year to comment on Matt Leinhart not being the #1 pick, when asked if the 49ers would have taken him over Alex Smith the year before, the fan said "we would have taken Leinhart with one arm, then taken his other appendage and beaten Alex Smith to death with it!!" Imagine the continual frustration of the Detroit Lions fans. Thats all i look forward to, the reaction on the faces of Lions fans and the look of assurance from Matt Millen after the pick -- it's small smile with a nodding head and a quick eye wink. Honestly, what kind of research are they doing?? It's like all Matt Millen does is watch CFB highlights on sportscenter. "hey Matt, did you see that catch that Michigan State WR made last night?"..."Yeah, what's his name?"...."can't remember, but he seems like a lock"..."yeah, let's check out his ratings on playstation NCAA 2002!!" If the Lions draft Calvin Johnson, It will be like "We usually don't pick up hitchhikers but I'm-a-gonna go with my instinct on this one. Saddle up Partner!"


So what do you do on Draft Day?? By no means am i any kind of an expert - but Luke Evans and I have had long conversations about this. There is somewhat of a strategy about building a team and then adding to one. I think if your team is the cellar (like the Raiders, Lions, Texans) there are do's and don'ts. You HAVE TO take a risk on a QB---sure it can backfire (Jeff George, Joey Harrington, David Carr, Ryan Leaf), but there are so few good QB's - when a possibility is there you just can't stick with an old alcholic/pill-popping/PMS/whiner (that's meant to be a summary of all the QB's on the raiders roster last year). But after that, you have to...you have to...you have to draft a left tackle. There has to be real patience in building teams, sorry Matt - you can't throw the ball if you don't have time to do it. It's almost like Matt Millen keeps buying these "sweet rims" w/o a car to put them on.


What to do:
- if a good QB is there and you don't have one, take him - draft a solid OL - if a shutdown CB is available, take him - The first defensive position you have to fill is DL

What not to do:
- Never draft a WR in the first round (too many Marques Colston's out there, its too easy to find talent here) - Rarely, very rarely draft a RB (very replacable, all i can think about is the Denver Broncos and how they year in and year out plug in all these no names and run the ball well) - draft a kicker (Al Davis drafted Sebastion Janikowski in the first round - genious) This could go on forever, i think we should just comment on the worst draft picks and the best gambles that we can remember.

Two closing thoughts. Mike Ditka in a Hawaiian shirt with cigar in mouth on draft day 1999 confident in his decision of Ricky Williams (maybe that wasn't a cigar) - and Peter King of Sports Illustrated critiquing the Colts in 1998, "the Colts have made a
huge mistake in not taking Ryan Leaf, he is a winner."

15 Comments:

At 12:11 PM, Blogger Alex said...

by the way, i should mention that I really hope Jamarcus Russell doesn't go #1 just to see Mel Kiper's reaction.

 
At 1:00 PM, Blogger Brian said...

I love the Dumb and Dumber quote. I can't wait to see how the Texans screw up the draft again this year. Last year's number one pick was hilarious.

I refuse to comment on Mike Ditka's fiasco. 2007 was the first year the Saints recovered from that.

 
At 4:14 PM, Blogger Charles Blanchard said...

How frustrated are the Falcons with Superman Vick? I'm not saying you don't draft him that early, but you definitely have to think twice before reupping his contract for $100 mil, if you're concerned about winning, that is. If you just want to sell tickets and jerseys, maybe that's the way to go.

I don't understand teams that don't use the draft. The Packers started five rookies by the end of last season. Joseph Addai, a rookie, should have been the MVP of the Super Bowl. There are too many college players that can come in and make an immediate impact to trade away your draft for free agents that will eat up as much if not more money, and be older and often more susceptible to injury.

I predict that Adrian Peterson is a bust in the NFL, and I predict that Brady Quinn is good, but never reaches the elite status (the Marc Bulger of the next generation). Maybe he'll be another Trent Dilfer or Brad Johnson and just do well enough to not screw his otherwise loaded team out of a Super Bowl win.

I also have never forgiven Ditka for trading away the Saints' first born child for Panama Red.

 
At 4:50 PM, Blogger kurt said...

Maybe Mel has a point.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZxNeFLuY98

Marino & Sapp...simply astonishing!

 
At 11:00 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

i loathe Mel Kiper.

- Chris

 
At 11:03 AM, Blogger Alex said...

i don't think Mel Kiper is a full blown idiot. I just am humored that he spends all year towards this day. Do you think he's ever stepped back and thought "what the Hell am I doing with my life?"

 
At 3:00 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Brady Quinn will be an absolute joke! He never did anything against any good teams in college. His worst games were against the best teams. All of his statistics were from the military schools white-boy defense.

Kijana Carter, Ryan Leaf, Tony Mandarich, Akilli Smith, and Tim Couch come to mind as some of the worst picks of all time.

- Ben

 
At 3:31 PM, Blogger Alex said...

hey, just a reminder. When you visit this site. Please click on the 'westminster bookstore' link. all you have to do is just click on the link and then come right back.....it would be much appreciated.


on the draft notes, i love it when someone in the first 5 picks is drafted and you have to go "Who is that??"--halarious!

Also, I've always wanted those hats they give out on draft day--but you can't pull them off unless your pimped out in a suit.

 
At 5:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

what's the vote on the raiders pick? I'm going with J. Russel

- Chris

 
At 5:37 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Mmmmmm, Jamarcus Russell seems like a nice guy.

 
At 11:42 AM, Blogger Luke said...

Agreed on the QB thing, of course. I think Russell and Quinn should go 1 and 2. If the Lions don't take a QB then they are crazy...but Matt Millen will probably draft Calvin Johnson. He is worse than Isaiah Thomas.

I think Peterson is the best player in the draft. I see him as an instant All Pro a la Edge James in 1998 or 1999.

Most important positions are QB, LT, DT, and then CB.

Top 5 should be:
1. B. Quinn
2. J. Russell
3. J. Thomas
4. A. Peterson
5. C. Johnson

Top 5 will be:
1. J. Russell
2. J. Thomas
3. B. Quinn
4. C. Johnson
5. G. Adams

 
At 12:48 PM, Blogger Alex said...

I really don't think that J. Russell or B. Quinn will be all-pro's. J. Russell could have some good years, but i really think Quinn will be like Joey Harrington and David Carr. Brady Quinn is a re-incarnate David Klingler.

 
At 1:30 PM, Blogger Alex said...

by the way, has anyone paid attention to the running list of 'all time best picks' on ESPN.com - some of these are rediculous.

#1's- I was blown away by the list of these players who panned out - until i saw the name Drew Bledsoe on the same list as John Elway.
#2's- this list is amazing, but i thought it was kind of absurd to think McNabb has been a better pick than Julius Peppers or Cornelius Bennett
#3- Vince Young is on here after one year, a bit soon eh??
#4's- this list is sick until you come to the honorable mention: Charles Woodson, seriously?
#5's- Kerry Collins and Ricky Williams are on this list....Ricky Williams i said
#6's - this list is good, but Eric Swann, did he ever play??
#7's - Thomas Jones is on this list
#8's - not bad, but Roy Williams on the list with Ronnie Lott??
#9's - Fred Taylor is in this group, has he ever played a full season?
#10's - Matt Leinhars is already included in this group...with Marcus Allen

 
At 4:12 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Charles Woodson is a joke in every category of possible.

- Ben

 
At 10:15 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi! Best topic, but will this really work?

 

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